Is the GOP going to survive this election (2016)?

While no one can ever predict the future, particularly when it comes to such complex, dynamic questions about the future of political parties, it does seem clear from this election cycle and from the election cycles since 2010, when the Tea Party first came to power in the mid-term elections and Republicans retook control of the House of Representatives, that the fault lines with the Republican Party are becoming much more pronounced. Traditionally, the modern Republican Party, or GOP (which stands for Grand Old Party) has been a coalition of three distinct groups of voters.

There is the business-friendly, fiscally-conservative but socially moderate wing, often referred to as the "Establishment," which has long dominated Republican Party Presidential contests. Next, there are the Social Conservatives, also known as the Religious Right, composed largely of Evangelical Christian voters who are motivated by issues like abortion (they oppose it), Gay marriage, which they also oppose, and what they term "family values." This block of voters tends to care less about economic and fiscal issues, but in the past, has tended to agree with the "Establishment" on hawkish foreign policy and American Exceptionalism. Finally, there are the small-government Republicans, often called Libertarians, who want to reduce the presence of government in day to day life. They want fewer regulations and they tend to be fiscally conservative but socially moderate. In most cases, they want the government to stop telling people what to do with their money, their business and their bodies. 

In the last six years or so, however, and particularly this election cycle, discontented white, working class voters who feel economically marginalized and tend to participate less often in the political process are saying "enough is enough" to the more moderate, fiscally conservative, business and trade friendly Establishment, which normally finds a way to unify each wing of the party with consensus candidates like Reagan, Bush Sr., Bush Jr., McCain and Romney. This year, however, the more downscale, less affluent and more xenophobic, reactionary, and sometimes even racist and sexist elements within the Republican party have started to make their voices heard. Donald Trump has successfully tapped into this sense of dissatisfaction that many Republicans feel, becoming an unlikely spokesman for their frustration, and even more surprising, Evangelical voters have glommed onto to Trump's message. This is not a new block of voters within the GOP, but rather, it is a block that crosses over and encompasses large numbers of both Libertarians and Evangelicals. 

As a result, a plurality of these two GOP voting blocks, thus far into the primary season at least (April, 2016) have been able to drown out the more moderate and mainstream voices of the Republican Establishment, who are disagree with remarks of candidates like Trump and Ted Cruz that they see as overtly racist, sexist and xenophobic . It is very possible that the GOP as we know it today will splinter into two separate parties if Trump is the nominee, or even if he is not, because the more moderate Republicans want to derail his candidacy at any cost, while his supporters want to see him as the nominee, no matter the cost. 

If the GOP convention goes to a second ballet in Cleveland and the Establishment picks a candidate other than Trump or Cruz, the Republican party as we know it will likely fracture. That said, certain segments of GOP have become so extreme in their views and tactics over the past ten to fifteen years that many people think the schism between the moderates and the reactionaries has already occurred, at least within Congress and the general electorate. This election might simply be seen as the final straw in a political divorce that was a long time coming.